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Monday, May 4, 2009

The Probability Problem



I heard a great illustration listening to a podcast on atheism once, it was rather humorous but without a doubt true. It went something like this:



Perhaps you've heard of the man who thought he was dead? In reality he was very much alive. His delusion became such a problem that his family finally paid for him to see a psychiatrist.The psychiatrist spent many laborious sessions trying to convince the man he was still alive. Nothing seemed to work. Finally the doctor tried one last approach. He took out his medical books and proceeded to show the patient that dead men don't bleed. After hours of tedious study, the patient seemed convinced that dead men don't bleed."Do you now agree that dead men don't bleed?" the doctor asked."Yes, I do," the patient replied."Very well, then," the doctor said. He took out a pin and pricked the patient's finger. Out came a trickle of blood. The doctor asked, "What does that tell you?""Oh my goodness!" the patient exclaimed as he stared incredulously at his finger ... "Dead men do bleed!!"



Sometimes Atheist/Evolutionist can act in the same manner. The After Eden cartoon above is a great illustration of that. Even after the calculations are given and a number too large for man to articulate comes out to be what the chances are for "molecules to man" evolution to have occurred, man still chooses to "hope" that it is true.



"What would be involved in the accidental development of a single living cell? The fact is that the most elementary form of life is more complicated than any manmade thing on earth. The entire complex of New York City is less complicated than the makeup of the simplest microscopic cell.



It is more than ridiculous to talk about its chance production. Scientists themselves assure us that the structure of a single cell is unbelievably intricate. The chance for a proper combination of molecules into amino acids, and then into proteins with the properties of life is entirely unrealistic. "

American Scientist magazine made this admission in January of 1955:

"From the probability standpoint, the ordering of the present environment into a single amino acid molecule would be utterly improbable in all the time and space available for the origin of terrestrial life."


A Swiss mathematician, Charles Eugene Guye, actually computes the odds against such an occurrence at only one chance in 10(160). That means 10 multiplied by itself 160 times, a number too large even to articulate. Another scientist expressed it this way:
"The amount of matter to be shaken together to produce a single molecule of protein would be millions of times greater than that in the whole universe. For it to occur on earth alone would require many, almost endless, billions of years." The Evidence of God in an Expanding Universe, p. 23.



So why, with odds like these, do atheists and evolutionist still put their faith in such a dying theory? May I offer up a suggestion? It's because they must consider the alternative which is that an ultimate intelligent creator created it (life) And this means that ultimately they will be held accountable for their moral actions.

I debate atheist and evolutionist quite often and they always seem to repeat the proclamation "well I don't believe in God" Don't you understand that it doesn't matter whether you believe in God or not? Could you imagine if I stood up on the Empire State Building and proclaimed that I don't believe in gravity? What will my profession of not believing in gravity do for me once I step off that ledge? And in the same way your claim that God doesn't exist does nothing for you on the day when the Son of God is revealed and comes riding in the clouds, of which the scripture says "every eye will see him". (Rev 1:7) It will be a horrific day for the unbelieving and ungodly. The bible says "And just as it is appointed unto man to die once, and after that comes judgment" Heb 9:27 There will be nowhere to run, and no man will be able to hide from His presence. And those who have trusted in Him here on the earth will be gathered up with him in the air, and the event will be so great, scripture says even dead men will rise too! This is the time for you to look into these things. Oh how patient God has been with you, what grace he has given you that he has not come an hour ago or yesterday! But he is patient. God is wanting all men to come to repentance, He wants no one in hell. Hell was never meant for you and I, it was "prepared for the Devil and his angels" (Matt 25:41) Take advantage of "today" while it is still here. For those who think at the last minute you will accept God and be saved, you have been fed a lie. And just as when you are in court and about to be sentenced to a life in prison, you will be unable to say, Judge please forgive me for my wrong doing, I'm a good person, your crime will still need to be paid for because the judge is a just judge isn't he? What kind of a judge would let a criminal go? He would not be a just judge if he did this. Instead, on that day, you and many others will hear those great and terrifying words "Go away, I never knew you, you workers of iniquity"

The ESV, in context says:

"Not everyone who says to me, 'Lord, Lord,' will enter the kingdom of heaven, but the one who does the will of my Father who is in heaven. On that day many will say to me, 'Lord, Lord, did we not prophesy in your name, and cast out demons in your name, and do many mighty works in your name?' And then will I declare to them, 'I never knew you; depart from me, you workers of lawlessness.'

And this is not only for unbelievers, but some who profess to believe as well. In fact the verse above is to professing active believers in the church. And those who once professed and walked with God and are guilty where the scriptures has stated "They honor me with their lips but their hearts are far from me" In other words you claim to believe and follow but your life style suggest something else. On that day the two will be separated and those who enjoyed the presence of the lamb here on earth will forever be with him in eternity. I strongly urge those who doubt, to make an intellectual decision before making the blind profession that there is no God, because eternity is a long time. And I no doubt believe that you will remember for all eternity the day and the person who once presented the gospel and the opportunity to be saved by Jesus Christ who freely gives salvation to you and bore punishment you truly deserved, and ignored them. Think about it please...

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

Strictly speaking, the matter of the needed molecules coming together to create life is abiogenesis (life from non-life), a subject completely distinct from the study of evolution.

Don't you see any problem arguing reverse probability? If you use the beginning point of any ancient time of your choosing, what would you say would be the probability that there would be a gentleman of your make and model sitting in front of a blowing screen in your exact location, talking to another random strange of my make and model across the Internet about an issue illustrated by a comic strip? The probability would be something like the ridiculous number in the cartoon, give or take some decimal places. I, for one, live a very unlikely life, and some guy from 1980 calculating the probability that events would have unfolded in this way ten years ago is infinitesimally remote.

Honestly, it's this kind of absurd reasoning and abused logic that has driven me away from creationism. In one manner of speaking, I switched sides from the one I could refute to the one I could not.

"Reverse probability" is a poor technique of argumentation that opens you up to ridicule. You can do better than that.

Joe Sirianni said...

I find it extremely convenient that you would like to argue macro evolution which has never been observed and offers no irrefutable evidence whatsoever but like most, you do not want to discuss or offer any evidence as to how that first organism got there to begin with. You place yourself in the safe zone far too easily. Why not argue how that first organism got there, if you can, and then you are more than welcome to go on and argue how you think that organism some how survived without food, without blood, vessels, a heart, a mate with the exact reproductive organs to produce offspring etc... ?

In my opinion I don't think you are interested in "logic" Otherwise you would not make a comment such as "....it's this kind of absurd reasoning..."
What absurd reasoning? That an intelligent agent created the complex life we see today which seems to be obviously "designed", or should I believe what your evolutionist claim that in the beginning nothing blew up and created everything?

So lets reason since you are a man of reason. I believe in the beginning God, and you believe in the beginning "nothing" which is a scientific impossibility. Who sounds more irrational, illogical and unreasonable? You or me?

Renowned men of science "today" still calculate the odds of life producing itself by chance, natural selection & mutation to be astronomical. You believe this by faith not by evidence. If I may, would you please state what it exactly was the evidence that convinced you that evolutionism was true? Could you please give me your best evidence for a dog producing a non dog and a cat producing a non cat? Could you supply me with one indisputable fossil supporting your belief?

And as to the answer to your question of probability. The odds of a man of my make and model speaking with another man through a computer are highly probable when you start with already made organisms and products that were themselves created by man.

Thanks for commenting

respectfully,

Joe

highdesert said...

You said this:
"So why, with odds like these, do atheists and evolutionist still put their faith in such a dying theory? May I offer up a suggestion? It's because they must consider the alternative which is that an ultimate intelligent creator created it (life) And this means that ultimately they will be held accountable for their moral actions."

And may I also offer up a suggestion? It seems to me that people like you choose to believe the Christian Bible because you don't want to accept the moral position of the Buddhists that it is wrong to eat meat. You're afraid of being held accountable for all the animals whose flesh you have eaten. You don't want to become Jewish or Muslim because you cling to your bacon and ham-eating vices. You fear Hinduism because you'd have to give up hamburgers and steak. Admit it, you chose Christianity so you wouldn't have to give up your meat-eating lusts and become a vegetarian. But the fact that you don't believe in reincarnation doesn't mean you won't be waking up in your next life and realizing you've become a cow on the way to a slaughterhouse.

If you think what I posted here is ridiculous, try to realize that your suggestion that atheists avoid religion because of some fear of their moral actions is equally ridiculous.

Joe Sirianni said...

Atheist don't avoid religion, after all atheism in and of itself is a religion. Atheist avoid God the Father and Jesus Christ the Savior.

"and in every sort of evil that deceives those who are perishing. They perish because they refused to love the truth and so be saved"

Joe Sirianni said...

Highdesert? No comment on the Dino post? Maybe you haven't read it. I would be curious to hear what you think. If not, no worries.

http://narrowminded7.blogspot.com/2009/07/dinosaur-soft-tissue-and-proteineven.html